Recession Probability Monitor Update - China - July 2024

The latest China recession probability monitor points to a decrease in the near term probability of an upcoming recession in China. On the other hand, the probability of a recession at 24 months horizon is nearly 100%.

Recession Probability Monitor - Update - India - July 2024

The latest India recession probability monitor points to a further decrease in the probability of recession in India.

Recession Probability Monitor - Update - Euro Area - July 2024

Considering a medium-term horizon, the latest Euro Area (EA) recession probability monitor points to an increase in the probability of an upcoming recession in the Euro-Area.

Recession Probability Monitor Update - UK - July 2024

The latest UK recession probability monitor points to an decrease in the probability of an upcoming recession in the UK.

ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (Executive Board Members Speeches) - Update: June 2024

In this latest update of the ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (speeches) we analyse the latest communication of Executive Board Members of the ECB outside scheduled ECB GC meetings.

Recession Probability Monitor Update - US - July 2024

The latest RPM shows an increased likelihood of a US recession. Key indicators include S&P 500 returns, changes in NFP, and the 10-year to 3-month rate spread, with the yield curve inversion in early 2023 being particularly significant.

Advance Macro FOMC Hawk/Dove Index (Fed's Official Speeches) - Update: June 2024

Members of the Federal Reserve frequently give public speeches, providing transparency and guiding market perceptions. Monitoring these speeches reveals a general "higher-for-longer" sentiment regarding the federal funds rate.

RBI Central Bank E-Monitor - June 2024 Update

At the latest meeting, the RBI Fear Inflation Score Index decreased, signalling a favourable inflation outlook, while the Economic Activity Score Index slightly increased, indicating concerns about geopolitical uncertainties.

FOMC Central Bank E-Monitor - June 2024: Fear scores update.

The Fed's June 2024 meeting kept rates unchanged but highlighted rising inflation concerns, with core PCE inflation projections increased to 2.8%. Our Advance Macro Fear Indices show heightened FOMC worries about inflation, economic activity, and labor market.