Recession Probability Monitor (RPM)

The latest China recession probability monitor points to a decrease in the near term probability of an upcoming recession in China. On the other hand, the probability of a recession at 24 months horizon is nearly 100%.

The latest India recession probability monitor points to a further decrease in the probability of recession in India.

Considering a medium-term horizon, the latest Euro Area (EA) recession probability monitor points to an increase in the probability of an upcoming recession in the Euro-Area.

The latest UK recession probability monitor points to an decrease in the probability of an upcoming recession in the UK.

The latest RPM shows an increased likelihood of a US recession. Key indicators include S&P 500 returns, changes in NFP, and the 10-year to 3-month rate spread, with the yield curve inversion in early 2023 being particularly significant.